Nissan Will Sell 500,000 Electric Cars a Year by 2013, Says Chief
By MATTHEW L. WALD
Credit: The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com)
On the eve of the market debut of the Nissan Leaf electric car, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance, said the only constraint on sales for the next three years will be how many battery packs the factories could churn out.
Deliveries of the Leaf are scheduled to start next month. Mr. Ghosn, speaking to reporters in Washington on Monday afternoon, did not say just how many he expected to sell in the first three years. He said, however, that the Leaf would hit 500,000 units a year in three years. Mass production, he explained, would lower costs enough to make the car a sales success without subsidies sooner than once expected. He said he once thought that number was a million cars a year, but now believed it was from 500,000 to 1 million.
“We’re going to have to put some efforts into selling the car, but the kind of spontaneous demand is going to be driving the sales for the next three years,” Mr. Ghosn said. “There is such a curiosity about the car and attention to the car.”
He predicted that 10 percent of the world car market would be electric vehicles by 2020. “There is no doubt in the minds of anyone in the industry that this is going to be a big factor in the industry,” he said.
The federal government is offering a tax credit of $7,500 to electric car buyers. Asked about the future of the credit in light of the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, he said that aid to electric vehicles was a field in which Republicans and Democrats would work together, but he added that when it came to subsidies, “we’re conscious of the fact that this cannot last forever.”
An alternative approach to electrification, the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid car, got good news on Nov. 11 when General Electric said it would buy the Volt for its fleet. Mr. Ghosn said that Hertz and Enterprise were buying 500 Leafs. But more to the point, he said, the Volt was not really an electric car. “An electric car for me is a car in which the wheels are moving only by electricity,” he said. The Volt has a gas engine that kicks in after the electric battery has been depleted (between 25 to 50 miles), to help produce the electricity needed to keep the car moving.
Nissan, he insisted, would be the world leader in electric cars. Mr. Ghosn’s companies are working around the globe. In June Renault will begin producing 100,000 electric cars designed so that depleted battery packs can be swapped out for charged packs. The cars will be built in Turkey for use in Israel, with the battery-swapping handled by the company Better Place.
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the prospects for electric vehicles making a big dent in world oil demand. Last week the Boston Consulting Group predicted that E.V.’s could make up 5 to 10 percent of new car sales by 2020. “Even with higher adoption rates, E.V.’s are unlikely to become a material part of the vehicle fleet in the coming decade, because fleet turnover is slow,” the report said.
One of the report’s authors, Justin Rose, said that at least for the short term, “when we think about the prospects for being broadly disruptive, it’s actually quite difficult.”
But Mr. Ghosn was all sunshine. Asked how the Environmental Protection Agency should prepare the fuel economy sticker that goes in the window of each new car, giving miles per gallon, he raised his voice in mock fury.
“Miles per gallon?” he said. “Infinite! Infinite! There is no gallon!”
Credit: The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com)
By MATTHEW L. WALD
Credit: The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com)
On the eve of the market debut of the Nissan Leaf electric car, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance, said the only constraint on sales for the next three years will be how many battery packs the factories could churn out.
Deliveries of the Leaf are scheduled to start next month. Mr. Ghosn, speaking to reporters in Washington on Monday afternoon, did not say just how many he expected to sell in the first three years. He said, however, that the Leaf would hit 500,000 units a year in three years. Mass production, he explained, would lower costs enough to make the car a sales success without subsidies sooner than once expected. He said he once thought that number was a million cars a year, but now believed it was from 500,000 to 1 million.
“We’re going to have to put some efforts into selling the car, but the kind of spontaneous demand is going to be driving the sales for the next three years,” Mr. Ghosn said. “There is such a curiosity about the car and attention to the car.”
He predicted that 10 percent of the world car market would be electric vehicles by 2020. “There is no doubt in the minds of anyone in the industry that this is going to be a big factor in the industry,” he said.
The federal government is offering a tax credit of $7,500 to electric car buyers. Asked about the future of the credit in light of the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, he said that aid to electric vehicles was a field in which Republicans and Democrats would work together, but he added that when it came to subsidies, “we’re conscious of the fact that this cannot last forever.”
An alternative approach to electrification, the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid car, got good news on Nov. 11 when General Electric said it would buy the Volt for its fleet. Mr. Ghosn said that Hertz and Enterprise were buying 500 Leafs. But more to the point, he said, the Volt was not really an electric car. “An electric car for me is a car in which the wheels are moving only by electricity,” he said. The Volt has a gas engine that kicks in after the electric battery has been depleted (between 25 to 50 miles), to help produce the electricity needed to keep the car moving.
Nissan, he insisted, would be the world leader in electric cars. Mr. Ghosn’s companies are working around the globe. In June Renault will begin producing 100,000 electric cars designed so that depleted battery packs can be swapped out for charged packs. The cars will be built in Turkey for use in Israel, with the battery-swapping handled by the company Better Place.
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the prospects for electric vehicles making a big dent in world oil demand. Last week the Boston Consulting Group predicted that E.V.’s could make up 5 to 10 percent of new car sales by 2020. “Even with higher adoption rates, E.V.’s are unlikely to become a material part of the vehicle fleet in the coming decade, because fleet turnover is slow,” the report said.
One of the report’s authors, Justin Rose, said that at least for the short term, “when we think about the prospects for being broadly disruptive, it’s actually quite difficult.”
But Mr. Ghosn was all sunshine. Asked how the Environmental Protection Agency should prepare the fuel economy sticker that goes in the window of each new car, giving miles per gallon, he raised his voice in mock fury.
“Miles per gallon?” he said. “Infinite! Infinite! There is no gallon!”
Credit: The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com)
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