Boeing bullish on Southeast Asian aircraft demand
By Suchat Sritama
The Nation
Published on March 16, 2011
The crisis in Japan will hit aviation in the short term, but airlines in Southeast Asia will need 2,500 new aircraft over the next two decades, an executive from US aircraft-maker Boeing said yesterday.
"It is very difficult to foresee the future of the airline industry after the crisis in Japan," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "But the impact will be short-term."
He said the Japanese economy was the world's third-largest, with Japanese among the largest groups of travellers in the world.
So far, the crisis has not affected the 200 Boeing staff members working in the country.
Boeing is confident the aviation industry will grow over the next 20 years, in terms of both commercial flights and freight, and should gain a lot more business despite rising oil prices this year.
Southeast Asia is an emerging market, as many airlines need to replace old aircraft and more low-cost airlines are being established. These players will need to buy 2,500 aircraft over two decades, Tinseth said.
He said the 2,500 aircraft would be worth about US$370 billion (Bt11.3 trillion).
Thai Airways International alone will need 75 new aircraft over the next two to three years. The airline earlier placed orders to increase its fleet from 75 to 105 as part of its 10-year business plan.
Globally, airlines will need 30,900 new aircraft valued at $3.6 trillion through to 2029. Forty-four per cent of these aircraft will replace older, less efficient planes, while 56 per cent will be new aircraft needed to meet air-traffic growth. The world fleet is projected to double from 18,890 to 36,300 aircraft during the period.
Air traffic recovered faster than expected last year, as the global economy rapidly moved from recovery to growth, led by the emergence of Asian economies.
"Air-travel growth in Southeast Asia over the next 20 years is expected to be 6.9 per cent, while the region's economy is projected to grow 4.3 per cent," said Tinseth.
The Asia-Pacific region will account for 44 per cent of travel in 20 years' time, up from about 34 per cent today.
The Southeast Asian region currently has 676 aircraft in the backlog, which accounts for 6.5 per cent of Asia-Pacific's 20-year forecast for new aircraft.
Boeing recently announced an increase in production for its popular 777 and 737 families. The company is also focused on delivering on new development programmes, including the 787 Dreamliner and 747-8 Freighter and Intercontinental this year.
As of the fourth quarter last year, Boeing had a backlog of 3,443 aircraft, valued at $256 billion.
Credit: The Nation (www.nationmultimedia.com)
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